Lifecycle Roadmap
The path from grassroots exploration to production. Expand a stage to see who's there, hover the stage name for a quick synopsis, or click "Learn more" for a full deep dive.
The Lassonde Curve
How to read this →The classic pattern junior-mining valuations tend to trace across the same lifecycle stages below. The curve's height is illustrative shape only, not a per-company measurement — but its horizontal spacing is real: stages sit at their typical real-world duration apart (rough industry ranges, see below), which is why Permitting stretches so much wider than an economic study rather than getting an even step like the rest.
Rough Odds of Ever Reaching Production
Rough, judgment-based industry estimates of the odds a company currently at this stage ever reaches production — not derived from JuniorMetrics' own tracked companies, which only cover currently-active juniors and can't see the ones that never made it this far. Source: John Kaiser's (Kaiser Research Online) published "certainty ladder," detailed in full on Kaiser's Fair Speculative Value, corroborated by fellow analyst Brent Cook's estimate (via Kaiser, Mining Stock Education podcast, 2026) that roughly 1-in-50 to 1-in-100 early-stage projects, after some upgrading/de-risking, ever become a producing mine.
Exploration Phase— average 3-6 years
No resource has been proven economic yet — priced on discovery potential and cash runway.
Development Phase— average 5-17 years
The deposit is real; the question is what it's worth and whether it can get financed and permitted.
Production Phase— ongoing — length varies by remaining mine life
A real, cash-generating mine — valued like an operating business, not an exploration story.