JUNIORMETRICS

Ero Copper Corp.

ERO·ERO·US$32.89 (CAD 46.25)·US$3.4B cap
Copperalso:Caraíba & Tucumã Copper Mines, Bahia/Pará, Brazil (and Xavantina Gold Mine, Mato Grosso) Map

Ero Copper operates the Caraíba and Tucumã copper mines in Bahia and Pará states, Brazil, plus the Xavantina gold mine in Mato Grosso; Q1 2026 consolidated copper production was 17,287 tonnes (Caraíba 8,826t, Tucumã 8,461t) at C1 cash costs of $2.39/lb, with revenue of $263.2 million and net income of $109.3 million. Net debt stood at $490.7 million (1.0x trailing EBITDA) with $146.2 million of liquidity as of March 31, 2026, and full-year 2026 guidance of 67,500-77,500 tonnes copper was reaffirmed.

Notable vs. Peers

  • Financials score of 2.9/10 is weaker than the peer average of 5.6/10.
  • Jurisdiction risk score of 6/10 is meaningfully riskier than the peer average of 7.7/10.

Lifecycle Milestones

Grassroots
Resource Def.
PEA
PFS
Feasibility
Permitting
Construction
ProductionCurrent

Construction Milestones

5 of 5 reached
  1. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  2. Feb 2022 · Source
  3. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  4. Jun 2024 · Source
  5. Reached — date not disclosed · Source

Milestones are recorded only from a company's own dated disclosure. A milestone with no date shown is one we can confirm was reached but for which no date was disclosed — we don't estimate one. "Not yet reached" means exactly that, not that a date is missing. An "Expected" line likewise only ever reflects the company's own guidance (e.g. a study or permit decision targeted for a stated quarter) — most not-yet-reached milestones have none, and that absence means no such guidance has been disclosed, not that one is overdue.

Prior Ownership & Infrastructure
Caraíba & Tucumã Copper Mines, Bahia/Pará, Brazil (and Xavantina Gold Mine, Mato Grosso)
Existing MillTailings FacilityRoad AccessGrid Power10/10 built out

Combined view across 5 projects. Figures below are only combined where the underlying basis genuinely matches -- see the notes under each.

Combined resource
—
No project has a disclosed resource figure yet
IRR, per project
  • 27%Furnas Copper-Gold Project, Carajás, Pará, Brazil
  • 41.8%Tucumã Operation, Pará, Brazil
Each project's own figure -- IRR is not additive across independent projects, so these are never combined
Mine life, per project
  • 24 yrsFurnas Copper-Gold Project, Carajás, Pará, Brazil
  • 20 yrsCaraíba Operations, Bahia, Brazil
  • 12 yrsTucumã Operation, Pará, Brazil
Each project's own figure -- independent mine lives are never added or averaged
Combined NPV, by discount-rate basis
$2.4B
At 8% discount rate -- Furnas Copper-Gold Project, Carajás, Pará, Brazil + Tucumã Operation, Pará, Brazil
Sum of 2 studies dated 2021-2025 on different price decks -- see each project
8.8/10
Weak track recordStrong track record
8.8/10 vs.
2.9/10
Thin runwayWell-capitalized
2.9/10 vs.
How this is calculated
5.5/10
Weaker depositStronger deposit
5.5/10 vs.
How this is calculated
7.4/10
Harder place to buildEasier place to build
7.4/10 vs.
What goes into it
  • Jurisdiction (40%)6/10

    Brazil has a large, established mining sector and a stable federal mining code, but state-level permitting and community/environmental review timelines (as seen historically at Ero's own projects) add incremental risk versus top-tier North American/Australian jurisdictions.

  • Infrastructure (40%)10/10

    A confirmed mill, confirmed road access, confirmed grid power, and a confirmed tailings facility at Caraíba & Tucumã Copper Mines, Bahia/Pará, Brazil (and Xavantina Gold Mine, Mato Grosso).

  • Nearby producing mine (20%)Not yet researched

    No producing mine within 50 km in our reference list (nearest listed: Jacobina (Pan American Silver Corp.), 171 km). That list doesn't cover every mining district yet, so a longer distance isn't scored as remote.

6.2/10
Weaker profileStronger profile
6.2/10 vs.
Price Chart
$13.57$25.19$28.04$25.96$34.58AugDecAprJulOct2
Aug 12, 2025 – Oct 20, 2026
News
$32.89
+78.1%from low-17.6%from high
$18.47$39.92
See who ↓
2.4%
Low alignmentHigh alignment
2.4% vs.
See who ↓
74.2%
Low alignmentHigh alignment
74.2% vs.
$3.4B
Far belowFar above
$3.4B vs. $750.4M peer median
Price (USD - Local)
US$32.89 (CAD 46.25)
Cash Position (USD)
$101.7M
Far belowFar above
$101.7M vs. $87.7M peer median
Debt (USD)
$554.4M
Far aboveFar below
$554.4M vs. $39M peer median
$3.9B
Far belowFar above
$3.9B vs. $720.7M peer median
104.3M
Far aboveFar below
104.3M vs. 481.1M peer median
Jurisdiction
Brazil
Cut-off: Caraíba (underground): 0.51% Cu primary / ~0.33-0.34% Cu marginal; Tucumã (open pit): 0.51% Cu unconstrained / 0.20% Cu pit-constrained / 0.32% Cu marginal (inferred)
Open pit and underground
20 yrs2022 study
Far belowFar above
20 yrs vs. 17.5 yrs peer median
$2.39/lb
See projects ↓
See projects ↓
See projects ↓
$4.60/lb25% below reference ($6.14/lb)2026 study
See projects ↓
2.4%
0%100%
2.4% vs. 10.4% peer median
74.2%
0%100%
74.2% vs. 2.7% peer median
171 kmfrom Pan American Silver Corp.'s Jacobina
Outside typical bolt-on range

Acquisition Susceptibility

How this is calculated
3.7/10
Unlikely bolt-onFits the takeout profile

A relative ranking of how closely this company matches the profile of juniors that have actually been acquired — not a probability, and not a reason to buy. Acquisitions are rare: only a few dozen significant deals happen a year across a universe of thousands of juniors, so even a high score here describes a long shot. The strongest signal in the research, a producer that already owns part of the company, is scored from its disclosed strategic shareholders. A producer that is a joint-venture or earn-in partner on the project, rather than a shareholder, isn't captured yet.

How this score is built

  • Disclosed pending deal
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No pending acquisition or merger disclosed (checked)

    Not scored: having no deal in flight isn't held against a company.

    Weight 26.25%
  • Producer's strategic stake
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No producer holds a disclosed stake on file (holder register researched) See holders

    Not scored: most juniors that do get bought had no prior toehold, so a missing stake says little either way.

    Weight 25%
  • Distance to a producing mine
    Sub-score:
    1/10

    Nearest producing mine: Jacobina (Pan American Silver Corp.), 171 km

    10 next to a producing mine, 8 at 20 km, 5 at 50 km, 0 beyond 200 km.

    Weight 22.5% · 46% here
  • Lifecycle stage
    Sub-score:
    5.5/10

    Stage: Production

    Feasibility and permitting score 10, where deals cluster, and production 5.5; earlier stages score less, down to 1 at grassroots.

    Weight 15% · 31% here
  • Jurisdiction
    Sub-score:
    6/10

    Brazil: jurisdiction score 6/10

    Our jurisdiction score, used as is: higher means lower political and permitting risk.

    Weight 6.75% · 14% here
  • Commodity
    Sub-score:
    8/10

    Primary commodity: Copper

    Gold 10, copper 8, silver 5, nickel and uranium 4, others 2: most majors' deals are for gold.

    Weight 4.5% · 9% here

Weight is each input's share of the full score. “Here” is its share of this company's score: inputs that aren't scored are left out and the rest re-weighted, never counted as zero.

Overall Score Trend
+59% since 2026-07-30 · -3.1% from peak

Your Rankings

Community Sentiment
—SELLINGBUYING
CategoryCommunityYour Ranking
Overall— (0) 
Management— (0) 
Financials— (0) 
Jurisdiction— (0) 
Project Quality— (0) 

Management Team

President and Chief Executive Officer of Ero Copper Corp., appointed effective 1 Jan 2025 (also joined the Board) as part of a planned leadership succession alongside David Strang's move to Executive Chairman. MSc (Metallurgical Engineering), Colorado School of Mines. Joined Ero in Jan 2017 as VP Corporate Development (key role in the company's Oct 2017 IPO), promoted to President in Jan 2021 and additionally COO in Mar 2023. Earlier career: Director, Corporate Finance, FTI Consulting's Global Mining Advisory Practice; Partner, Ero Resource Partners; Investment Analyst, Liberty Metals & Mining LLC (Liberty Mutual Group's mining private-equity arm).

Executive Chairman of Ero Copper Corp., which he co-founded in May 2016 and led as CEO & Director until transitioning to Executive Chairman effective 1 Jan 2025. Undergraduate degree, Stanford University. 30-year mining career with an unusually clean run of real, completed exits: President/CEO of Lumina Copper Corp. (acquired by First Quantum Minerals, Aug 2014), Lumina Royalty Corp. (acquired by Franco-Nevada, 2011), Global Copper Corp. (acquired by Teck Resources, 2008), Lumina Resources Corp. (acquired by Western Copper, 2006), Regalito Copper Corp. (acquired by Pan Pacific, 2006), and VP Corporate Development of Northern Peru Copper Corp./original Lumina Copper Corp. (acquired by China Minmetals/Jiangxi Copper, 2008). Also affiliated with Travers Smith LLP.

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Ero Copper Corp. since 1 Apr 2017. 20 years of corporate-finance and capital-markets experience spanning multiple commodities and jurisdictions. BComm (Accounting and Finance), University of Cape Town (1993-1996). Career: Director & VP Commercial, BHP Group Ltd. (2003-2007); Head of Business Development, Norilsk Nickel Africa Pty Ltd. (2008-2009); Commercial Executive, Mantra Resources Pty Ltd. (2010-2013); VP Strategy & Development, Coalspur Mines Pty Ltd. (2012-2014); Head of Business & Corporate Development, Asanko Gold Inc./Galiano Gold Inc. (2014-2017), immediately before Ero Copper. Also an independent director of Plateau Energy Metals, Inc.

Over 25 years of international mining experience. Joined Ero in Sep 2024 as Senior Vice President, Operations. Immediately before Ero, ArcelorMittal's Chief Operating Officer, Mining and Executive Director for the company's integrated mining and steel operations in Central Asia; before that, ArcelorMittal's Mining Chief Technology Officer in London (technical services, global exploration and innovation). Earlier career at Rio Tinto and with engineering/technology companies in Canada and South America. Degree in Mining Engineering, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Insiders, Investors & Smart Money

Notable shareholders and insiders whose involvement is worth knowing about, plus what we're seeing from institutional/large-investor activity.

Smart money
2/10

GMT Capital, an Atlanta long/short equity manager, has been adding: our records have it at 5.9% in a September 2024 filing, and it bought a further 1.29 million shares in the first quarter of 2026 to reach roughly 6.69%, worth about US$84 million. That is the one directional signal here. The larger holders, T. Rowe Price at about 14% and Fidelity at about 11%, are mainstream fund complexes rather than resource specialists. Working against all of it, insider activity has been entirely one-way: seven insiders sold between November 2025 and June 2026, including John Wright three times and Lyle Braaten three times, with not a single open-market purchase on record.

No notable insiders tracked for this miner yet.

Reports, Presentations & Documents

Technical Report Takeaways

Ero Copper operates the Caraíba copper operations in Bahia, Brazil (99.6% owned), the Tucumã copper mine in Pará (99.6%, in commercial production since 1 July 2025) and the Xavantina gold mine in Mato Grosso (97.6%). Q2 2026 consolidated copper production was 17,315 t at a C1 cash cost of US$2.42/lb, and full-year 2026 guidance is 67,500-77,500 t of copper. Caraíba has a 20-year mine life under its reserve and resource update effective 30 September 2022, which reported measured and indicated resources of 117.9 Mt at 1.10% copper (about 1.30 Mt of contained copper, inclusive of reserves); Ero does not publish NPV figures for its producing operations. Its main growth project is Furnas in the Carajás province of Pará, where Ero can earn a 60% interest from Vale Base Metals, and holds none until the earn-in is complete. The February 2026 Furnas preliminary economic assessment shows an after-tax NPV8% of US$2.0B, a 27% IRR and a 24-year life on a 100% basis at US$4.60/lb copper, with initial capital of about US$1.3B.

Recent News

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