JUNIORMETRICS

Pivotal Metals LimitedP

PVT·US$0.009 (AUD 0.013)·US$11.9M cap
Copperalso:Horden Lake Project (Quebec, Canada) -- flagship; also Belleterre-Angliers Greenstone Belt (Quebec/Ontario) Map

Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT; formerly Rafaella Resources Limited, renamed November 2022), Brisbane-based but Canada-focused, holds 100% of the Horden Lake Project near Matagami, northwest Quebec, and the Belleterre-Angliers Greenstone Belt Project (~157km2, Archean Superior Province, Canadian Shield). Horden Lake carries a current JORC (2012) Mineral Resource Estimate (independently prepared by Caracle Creek International Consulting and Atticus Geoscience Consulting, effective 15 Jun 2026, reported 7 Jul 2026): 52Mt @ 1.05% CuEq containing 549,000t CuEq (292,000t contained copper), with ~87% of tonnage constrained within a conceptual open-pit shell. A scoping study released on 29 September 2026 outlines an open-pit operation producing about 29,000 tonnes of copper equivalent a year, based on the July 2026 resource. No NI 43-101 resource estimate has been published at Belleterre-Angliers, which remains at the exploration stage.

Lifecycle Milestones

Grassroots
Resource Def.
PEACurrent
PFS
Feasibility
Permitting
Construction
Production
5.4/10
Weak track recordStrong track record
5.4/10 vs.
6/10
Thin runwayWell-capitalized
6/10 vs.
How this is calculated
5.8/10
Weaker depositStronger deposit
5.8/10 vs.
How this is calculated
6.6/10
Harder place to buildEasier place to build
6.6/10 vs.
What goes into it
  • Jurisdiction (40%)9/10

    Quebec: Fraser PPI 2025 is 79.39 of 100 (rank 23 of 68), which maps to 9 on this site's scale. Quebec/Ontario (Canadian Shield), Canada is a Tier-1, well-established mining jurisdiction.

  • Infrastructure (40%)No verified figure

    Researched with nothing found: no source we could cite confirms or rules out an existing mill, road access, grid power, or tailings facility at Horden Lake Copper Project, Eeyou Istchee James Bay, Quebec, Canada (checked Sep 30, 2026; recheck due Mar 29, 2027). Counts at a neutral 5/10 until one does.

  • Nearby producing mine (20%)Not yet researched

    No project coordinates on file yet, so distance to a producing mine can't be measured.

6/10
Weaker profileStronger profile
6/10 vs.
Price Chart
$0.006$0.01$0.011$0.01$0.009SepDecAprJulOct
Sep 17, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Stage change
$0.009
+81.2%from low-60.4%from high
$0.005$0.023
$11.9M
Far belowFar above
$11.9M vs. $29.1M peer median
Price (USD - Local)
US$0.009 (AUD 0.013)
Cash Position (USD)
$2.4M
Far belowFar above
$2.4M vs. $4.3M peer median
Debt (USD)
Far aboveFar below
$0 vs. $0 peer median
$9.5M
Far belowFar above
$9.5M vs. $27.4M peer median
1.3B
Far aboveFar below
1.3B vs. 171.1M peer median
Jurisdiction
Canada
163,000 t Cu
Feeds Deposit Quality score
Indicated163,000 t Cu
Inferrednot scored129,000 t Cu
Total resource292,000 t Cu
Far belowFar above
163K t vs. 1.1M t peer median
Compares M&I only — Inferred isn't compared or scored.
$58.02/t
M&I
Total resource (incl. Inferred)$32.39/t
Peer median $218.56/t
Far aboveFar below
$58.02/t vs. $375.65/t peer median
9.7 yrs2026 study
Far belowFar above
9.7 yrs vs. 19 yrs peer median
$1.00/lb2026 study
@7%$662.4M2026 study · copper deck US$5.50 vs reference US$6.14/lb
Far belowFar above
$662.4M vs. $1.1B peer median
0.02x2026 study · copper deck US$5.50 vs reference US$6.14/lb
Far aboveFar below
0.02x vs. 0.37x peer median
0.01x2026 study · copper deck US$5.50 vs reference US$6.14/lb
Far aboveFar below
0.01x vs. 0.29x peer median
$308.2M2026 study
Far aboveFar below
$308.2M vs. $587M peer median
2.1xClears Durrett's 2:1 bar2026 study · copper deck US$5.50 vs reference US$6.14/lb
Far belowFar above
2.1x vs. 1.1x peer median
$5.50/lb10% below reference ($6.14/lb)2026 study
49%Clears Durrett's 25% developer bar2026 study · copper deck US$5.50 vs reference US$6.14/lb
Far belowFar above
49% vs. 23% peer median
-$2.4M
Far belowFar above
-$2.4M vs. -$4M peer median
-$0.002
Far belowFar above
-$0.002 vs. -$0.018 peer median

Acquisition Susceptibility

How this is calculated
7.1/10
Unlikely bolt-onFits the takeout profile

A relative ranking of how closely this company matches the profile of juniors that have actually been acquired — not a probability, and not a reason to buy. Acquisitions are rare: only a few dozen significant deals happen a year across a universe of thousands of juniors, so even a high score here describes a long shot. The strongest signal in the research, a producer that already owns part of the company, is scored from its disclosed strategic shareholders. A producer that is a joint-venture or earn-in partner on the project, rather than a shareholder, isn't captured yet.

How this score is built

  • Disclosed pending deal
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No pending acquisition or merger disclosed (checked)

    Not scored: having no deal in flight isn't held against a company.

    Weight 26.25%
  • Producer's strategic stake
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No producer holds a disclosed stake on file (holder register researched) See holders

    Not scored: most juniors that do get bought had no prior toehold, so a missing stake says little either way.

    Weight 25%
  • Distance to a producing mine
    Sub-score: Not yet researched

    Distance not yet researched: no project coordinates on file

    Distance can't be measured without coordinates, so excluded rather than counted as far.

    Weight 22.5%
  • Lifecycle stage
    Sub-score:
    6/10

    Stage: Preliminary Economic Assessment

    Feasibility and permitting score 10, where deals cluster, and production 5.5; earlier stages score less, down to 1 at grassroots.

    Weight 15% · 57% here
  • Jurisdiction
    Sub-score:
    9/10

    Canada: jurisdiction score 9/10

    Our jurisdiction score, used as is: higher means lower political and permitting risk.

    Weight 6.75% · 26% here
  • Commodity
    Sub-score:
    8/10

    Primary commodity: Copper

    Gold 10, copper 8, silver 5, nickel and uranium 4, others 2: most majors' deals are for gold.

    Weight 4.5% · 17% here

Weight is each input's share of the full score. “Here” is its share of this company's score: inputs that aren't scored are left out and the rest re-weighted, never counted as zero.

Risk/Reward Asymmetry
0.01x EV/NPV2026 study· 6th percentile of 19 stage+commodity peers· Unexplained

EV/NPV of 0.01x sits in the 6th percentile among 19 pea-stage copper peers ranked on EV/NPV, despite a jurisdiction score of 9/10 -- high enough that jurisdiction risk alone doesn't obviously explain the discount. Not explained by this mechanical screen: either a mispricing, or a risk the screen can't see (a jurisdiction issue this score doesn't capture, or some other factor entirely) -- a separate, more speculative case with no identified resolution catalyst, not the jurisdiction-risk pattern. See this company's own profile page for any completed, cited research into why it trades at a discount, where that research exists.

No researched, cited finding on file yet for what specifically makes this company cheap vs. its peers. Flagged by the mechanical screen above; a real research pass hasn't reached this company yet.

A relative screen, not a probability and not a reason to buy. This flags companies trading unusually cheap on EV/NPV (market cap plus debt minus cash, per dollar of attributable study NPV) vs. peers of the same lifecycle stage and commodity, for a real, identifiable reason (a jurisdiction risk, a specific dispute, an incident, a financing gap) that may or may not ever resolve favorably. "Unexplained" candidates carry no identified driver at all -- a more speculative bucket than a named catalyst. The year chip is the study behind the NPV; amber means it is more than 5 years old (still the study on file, so it stays in this screen).

Overall Score Trend
-25% since 2026-09-17 · -25% from peak

Your Rankings

Community Sentiment
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CategoryCommunityYour Ranking
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Management Team

Managing Director & CEO of Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT). Chartered engineer, 20 years in mining, finance and capital markets; former CEO of TSX-listed Mawson Gold Limited, whose Australian assets were later spun out into Southern Cross Gold Consolidated Ltd (ASX: SX2); ex-Senior Investment Manager at PE fund Greenstone Resources (AUM ~$500M).

Independent Non-Executive Chair of Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT). Lawyer with a capital-markets background; former board member of Morgans Financial and Shaw & Partners; Chair of the ASX Appeals Tribunal; former Chair of ASIC's Markets Disciplinary Panel. Source: pivotalmetals.com/about.

Independent Non-Executive Director of Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT). Founder/Director of mining VC group Starboard Global (current); Executive Director of ASX: NNL; 20+ years in corporate strategy, commodities marketing, mining M&A and exploration, including five years in corporate strategy at Xstrata plc. PhD in Mineral Engineering, UC Berkeley.

Independent Non-Executive Director of Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT). CEO of MCM Partners (HK-based asset manager/boutique merchant bank, current); founder and lead PM of the MCM Commodity Credit Fund; former CEO of VTB Capital HK; long career at Societe Generale in commodities. Source: pivotalmetals.com/about.

VP Exploration of Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT). Quebec-based senior exploration geologist (OGQ); 17 years at Falconbridge Ltd across its global Cu-Ni-PGM business unit, leading exploration teams from early-stage through to operating mines. Source: pivotalmetals.com/about.

Geologist at Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT). Quebec-based exploration geologist (OGQ), Val d'Or local; previously worked at Eldorado Gold Corp. and O3 Mining Inc. Source: pivotalmetals.com/about.

Metallurgist Advisor to Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT). 40 years' experience, with specialised expertise in Canadian Shield magmatic deposits. Source: pivotalmetals.com/about.

ESG Advisor to Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX: PVT); also Vice President, ESG of Q2 Metals Corp. Quebec-based government and community relations expert, 20+ years' resources-sector experience.

Insiders, Investors & Smart Money

Notable shareholders and insiders whose involvement is worth knowing about, plus what we're seeing from institutional/large-investor activity.

Smart money

No smart-money tracking (institutional/large-investor activity) for this miner yet — this is a planned feature, not live data.

No notable insiders tracked for this miner yet.

Reports, Presentations & Documents

Technical Report Takeaways

Pivotal Metals is a Brisbane-based, Canada-focused explorer that holds 100% of the Horden Lake copper project near Matagami in northwest Quebec and the Belleterre-Angliers Greenstone Belt project. Horden Lake's JORC (2012) resource, effective 15 June 2026, is 52Mt at 1.05% copper equivalent containing 292,000t of copper, mostly within a conceptual open-pit shell. A scoping study released on 29 September 2026 outlines an open-pit operation producing about 29,000 tonnes of copper equivalent a year, with a post-tax NPV of US$662.4M and a 49% post-tax IRR over a 9.7-year mine life. No resource has been estimated at Belleterre-Angliers, which remains at the exploration stage.