JUNIORMETRICS

Lundin Gold Inc.

LUGDF·LUG·LUGNasdaq Stockholm·US$64.20 (CAD 90.27)·US$15.5B cap
GoldFruta del Norte, Zamora-Chinchipe Province, Ecuador Map

Lundin Gold owns and operates the Fruta del Norte (FDN) underground gold mine in southeastern Ecuador, among the highest-grade operating gold mines in the world. FDN Mineral Reserves (31 Dec 2025) stand at a record 5.85 million ounces of gold in 25.66 million tonnes at 7.09 g/t, including the FDN South (FDNS) deposit's inaugural 0.54 million-ounce Probable Reserve; Measured & Indicated Resources, reported inclusive of those Reserves, total 7.48 million ounces in 32.61 million tonnes at 7.13 g/t, plus 2.03 million ounces Inferred at 6.17 g/t across FDN, FDNS and the new FDN East deposit -- more than replacing mined depletion since 2019 startup. The company targets ~4.8 million ounces of production over a 14-year mine life, guiding 475,000-525,000 oz/year 2025-2027. Q1 2026: cash and cash equivalents of $704 million, no debt, record free cash flow of $349 million, net income $273 million, and $278 million returned to shareholders via dividend. Became debt-free after a $330 million repayment to Newmont.

Notable vs. Peers

  • All-in sustaining cost of $1,015/oz is 44% lower than the peer producer average of $1,816/oz.
  • Jurisdiction risk score of 6/10 is meaningfully riskier than the peer average of 7.8/10.

Lifecycle Milestones

Grassroots
Resource Def.
PEA
PFS
Feasibility
Permitting
Construction
ProductionCurrent

Construction Milestones

5 of 5 reached
  1. Oct 2016 · Source
  2. Dec 2016 · Source
  3. May 2017 · Source
  4. Nov 2019 · Source
  5. Feb 2020 · Source

Milestones are recorded only from a company's own dated disclosure. A milestone with no date shown is one we can confirm was reached but for which no date was disclosed — we don't estimate one. "Not yet reached" means exactly that, not that a date is missing. An "Expected" line likewise only ever reflects the company's own guidance (e.g. a study or permit decision targeted for a stated quarter) — most not-yet-reached milestones have none, and that absence means no such guidance has been disclosed, not that one is overdue.

Prior Ownership & Infrastructure
Existing MillTailings FacilityRoad AccessGrid Power10/10 built out
7/10
Weak track recordStrong track record
7/10 vs.
6.4/10
Thin runwayWell-capitalized
6.4/10 vs.
How this is calculated
7.3/10
Weaker depositStronger deposit
7.3/10 vs.
How this is calculated
8.2/10
Harder place to buildEasier place to build
8.2/10 vs.
What goes into it
  • Jurisdiction (40%)6/10

    Fruta del Norte operates in Ecuador -- an emerging but improving mining jurisdiction; company has operated successfully here since 2019 with strong local relations, but Ecuador lacks the multi-decade regulatory track record of Tier-1 jurisdictions.

  • Infrastructure (40%)10/10

    A confirmed mill, confirmed road access, confirmed grid power, and a confirmed tailings facility at Fruta del Norte, Zamora-Chinchipe Province, Ecuador.

  • Nearby producing mine (20%)9.1/10

    Mirador (Ecuacorriente S.A.) is 34 km away -- within regional-platform range.

7.2/10
Weaker profileStronger profile
7.2/10 vs.
Price Chart
$57.20$79.72$76.31$56.98$64.95AugDecMarJulOct32
Aug 12, 2025 – Oct 20, 2026
News
$64.20
+30.3%from low-22.3%from high
$49.27$82.59
$15.5B
Far belowFar above
$15.5B vs. $541.2M peer median
Price (USD - Local)
US$64.20 (CAD 90.27)
Cash Position (USD)
$704M
Far belowFar above
$704M vs. $91.1M peer median
Debt (USD)
Far aboveFar below
$0 vs. $6.5M peer median
$14.8B
Far belowFar above
$14.8B vs. $457.8M peer median
241.8M
Far aboveFar below
241.8M vs. 336.8M peer median
Jurisdiction
Ecuador
7,480,000 oz
Feeds Deposit Quality score
Measured3,171,000 oz
Indicated4,309,000 oz
Inferrednot scored2,031,000 oz
Total resource9,511,000 oz
Far belowFar above
7.5M oz vs. 1.3M oz peer median
Compares M&I only — Inferred isn't compared or scored.
$1,981.54/oz
M&I
Total resource (incl. Inferred)$1,558.40/oz
Peer median $67.95/oz
Far aboveFar below
$1,981.54/oz vs. $132.92/oz peer median
0.208 oz/t
Far belowFar above
0.208 oz/t vs. 0.0379 oz/t peer median
Underground, high-grade
14 yrs2025 study
Far belowFar above
14 yrs vs. 11.1 yrs peer median
$1,015/oz
0.3%
0%100%
0.3% vs. 12.1% peer median
34 kmfrom Ecuacorriente S.A. (CRCC-Tongguan)'s Mirador
Within regional-platform range (~50km)
$349M
Far belowFar above
$349M vs. $51.8M peer median
$1.44
Far belowFar above
$1.44 vs. $0.155 peer median
44.49x
Far aboveFar below
44.49x vs. 22.67x peer median
$726.8M
Far belowFar above
$726.8M vs. $524.2M peer median
$3.01
Far belowFar above
$3.01 vs. $2.02 peer median

Acquisition Susceptibility

How this is calculated
7.7/10
Unlikely bolt-onFits the takeout profile

A relative ranking of how closely this company matches the profile of juniors that have actually been acquired — not a probability, and not a reason to buy. Acquisitions are rare: only a few dozen significant deals happen a year across a universe of thousands of juniors, so even a high score here describes a long shot. The strongest signal in the research, a producer that already owns part of the company, is scored from its disclosed strategic shareholders. A producer that is a joint-venture or earn-in partner on the project, rather than a shareholder, isn't captured yet.

How this score is built

  • Disclosed pending deal
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No pending acquisition or merger disclosed (checked)

    Not scored: having no deal in flight isn't held against a company.

    Weight 26.25%
  • Producer's strategic stake
    Sub-score:
    10/10

    Newmont Corporation holds 31.88% (reported 16 Mar 2026) See holders

    An operating producer's stake scores 8 at 5%, rising to 10 at 20% (the take-over-bid threshold) and holding there up to 50%.

    Weight 25% · 34% here
  • Distance to a producing mine
    Sub-score:
    6.6/10

    Nearest producing mine: Mirador (Ecuacorriente S.A.), 34 km

    10 next to a producing mine, 8 at 20 km, 5 at 50 km, 0 beyond 200 km.

    Weight 22.5% · 31% here
  • Lifecycle stage
    Sub-score:
    5.5/10

    Stage: Production

    Feasibility and permitting score 10, where deals cluster, and production 5.5; earlier stages score less, down to 1 at grassroots.

    Weight 15% · 20% here
  • Jurisdiction
    Sub-score:
    6/10

    Ecuador: jurisdiction score 6/10

    Our jurisdiction score, used as is: higher means lower political and permitting risk.

    Weight 6.75% · 9% here
  • Commodity
    Sub-score:
    10/10

    Primary commodity: Gold

    Gold 10, copper 8, silver 5, nickel and uranium 4, others 2: most majors' deals are for gold.

    Weight 4.5% · 6% here

Weight is each input's share of the full score. “Here” is its share of this company's score: inputs that aren't scored are left out and the rest re-weighted, never counted as zero.

Overall Score Trend
+0% since 2026-08-08 · -8.9% from peak

Your Rankings

Community Sentiment
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CategoryCommunityYour Ranking
Overall— (0) 
Management— (0) 
Financials— (0) 
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Project Quality— (0) 

Management Team

President and Chief Executive Officer of Lundin Gold Inc. since 7 Nov 2025, succeeding Ron Hochstein; also a director of LunR Royalties Corp. and Fireweed Metals Corp. Before Lundin Gold, CEO of Filo Corp. (2020-2025), guiding it to a US$4.5B acquisition by BHP and Lundin Mining (an ~1,700% shareholder return); before that, numerous senior roles within the Lundin Group of Companies since 2009 (NGEx Resources, Filo Mining, Josemaria Resources, Lundin Mining), most recently VP Corporate Development and Projects. P.Eng. (Ontario); BASc, Queen's University; MBA, University of British Columbia.

Chief Financial Officer of Lundin Gold Inc. since Aug 2024 (previously interim CFO, and Senior Vice President Finance since the Lundin Group's 2014 acquisition of Fruta del Norte; with the Lundin Group since 2011). Before Lundin Gold, CFO of NGEx Resources Inc. (2014-2016); Financial Controller of Lucara Diamond Corp. (2011-2013); and Manager, Financial Reporting & Treasury at Western Coal Corp. (until its 2011 US$3.3B acquisition by Walter Energy). Began his career with 3 years in public accounting at PricewaterhouseCoopers. B.Comm (Accounting), University of British Columbia; CPA.

President and Chief Executive Officer of Lundin Mining Corporation (CEO from Dec 2023; President from 2022); also Chairman of Lundin Gold Inc. Began his career in prospecting roles on early-stage projects in Canada, Russia, Ireland and Portugal, then as Project Superintendent on Lundin Gold's Fruta del Norte mine development (Ecuador) and an economic analyst role within the Lundin Group. Immediately before Lundin Mining, President and CEO of Bluestone Resources Inc. (2020-2022), advancing the Cerro Blanco gold project in Guatemala toward a construction decision. Son of Lukas Lundin.

Insiders, Investors & Smart Money

Notable shareholders and insiders whose involvement is worth knowing about, plus what we're seeing from institutional/large-investor activity.

Smart money

Not scored. Smart-money tracking covers companies below about US$5B in market cap, where a single specialist fund or strategic investor taking a stake is a meaningful signal. This company was above that size when it was assessed.

No notable insiders tracked for this miner yet.

Reports, Presentations & Documents

Technical Report Takeaways

Lundin Gold operates the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador. Its 31 Dec 2025 statement (released 17 Feb 2026) reports measured and indicated resources of 7.48 Moz (3.17 Moz measured, 4.31 Moz indicated) across Fruta del Norte and the FDN South and FDN East discoveries, up 6% on 2024, plus 2.03 Moz inferred.

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