JUNIORMETRICS

Lucara Diamond Corp.

LUCRF·LUC·LUCARABotswana Stock Exchange·US$0.085 (CAD 0.12)·US$127.2M cap
OtherKarowe Mine, Botswana (open pit, transitioning to Karowe Underground) Map

Lucara Diamond is a diamond mining company whose sole operating asset is the Karowe Mine in Botswana, notable for recovering some of the largest gem-quality diamonds ever found. The company is developing the Karowe Underground Project to access the highest-value portion of the orebody and extend mine life to at least 2040 (mining license valid through 2046): pre-production capital of US$779 million, after-tax unlevered NPV at 8% of US$432.1 million, targeting >US$1.3 billion net income and ~US$4 billion in additional revenue over the extension (conservative diamond price assumptions). Underground development/stockpile processing runs 2026-2027, commercial underground operations begin 2028, full production 2028-2038, at a steady 2.85 million tonnes/year throughput. Lucara ended Q1 2026 with cash of $244.3 million (up from $31.9M at 31 Dec 2025) after fully repaying $220.0 million of project debt, following a C$165.0 million equity financing (Jan 2026) and a $350.0 million senior secured bond issuance (Mar 2026) to fund the underground project. Diamonds have no primary commodity tag, so the company is classed under Other, with its resource recorded in carats.

Notable vs. Peers

  • Financials score of 1/10 is weaker than the peer average of 6.1/10.
  • Trading within 4% of its 52-week low — weak recent price momentum.

Lifecycle Milestones

Grassroots
Resource Def.
PEA
PFS
Feasibility
Permitting
Construction
ProductionCurrent

Construction Milestones

5 of 5 reached
  1. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  2. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  3. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  4. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  5. Reached — date not disclosed · Source

Milestones are recorded only from a company's own dated disclosure. A milestone with no date shown is one we can confirm was reached but for which no date was disclosed — we don't estimate one. "Not yet reached" means exactly that, not that a date is missing. An "Expected" line likewise only ever reflects the company's own guidance (e.g. a study or permit decision targeted for a stated quarter) — most not-yet-reached milestones have none, and that absence means no such guidance has been disclosed, not that one is overdue.

Prior Ownership & Infrastructure
Existing MillTailings FacilityRoad AccessGrid Power10/10 built out
5.4/10
Weak track recordStrong track record
5.4/10 vs.
1/10
Thin runwayWell-capitalized
1/10 vs.
How this is calculated
Not scored (no size scale for carats)
5,358,000 ct on file
Weaker depositStronger deposit
How this is calculated
9.2/10
Harder place to buildEasier place to build
9.2/10 vs.
What goes into it
  • Jurisdiction (40%)8/10

    Botswana has one of Africa's most stable, established, and mining-friendly governance track records (notably for diamonds, alongside Debswana/De Beers).

  • Infrastructure (40%)10/10

    A confirmed mill, confirmed road access, confirmed grid power, and a confirmed tailings facility at Karowe Underground Project, Botswana.

  • Nearby producing mine (20%)9.9/10

    Letlhakane (Debswana Diamond Company) is 22 km away -- within regional-platform range.

5.2/10
Weaker profileStronger profile
5.2/10 vs.
Price Chart
$0.158$0.136$0.172$0.115$0.085AugDecMarJulOct5
Aug 12, 2025 – Oct 20, 2026
News
$0.085
+9.1%from low-65.2%from high
$0.078$0.25
$127.2M
Far belowFar above
$127.2M vs. $211.3M peer median
Price (USD - Local)
US$0.085 (CAD 0.12)
Cash Position (USD)
$244.3M
Far belowFar above
$244.3M vs. $52.1M peer median
Debt (USD)
$350M
Far aboveFar below
$350M vs. $23.3M peer median
$232.9M
Far belowFar above
$232.9M vs. $186.9M peer median
1.5B
Far aboveFar below
1.5B vs. 258.8M peer median
Jurisdiction
Botswana
5,358,000 ct
Feeds Deposit Quality score
Indicated5,358,000 ct
Inferrednot scored1,152,000 ct
Total resource6,510,000 ct
Not enough peer companies report this metric
Compares M&I only — Inferred isn't compared or scored.
$43.46/ct
M&I
Total resource (incl. Inferred)$35.77/ct
Not enough peer companies report this metric
Cut-off: Resource: +1.25mm bottom screen cut (Indicated 33.13 Mt @ 16.2 cpht = 5.36 Mct; Inferred 6.72 Mt @ 17.2 cpht = 1.15 Mct). Reserve: value-based cut-off -- Open Pit US$35/t, Underground US$37/t, Stockpile US$19.50/t, also at +1.25mm bottom screen (factored for diamond losses). Combined Probable Reserve 37.3 Mt @ 12.2 cpht = 4,547,000 ct.
Open pit (current), transitioning to underground (Karowe Underground Project, commercial ops from 2028)
15 yrs2025 study
Far belowFar above
15 yrs vs. 17.5 yrs peer median
All-In Sustaining Cost
@8%$432.1M(at $748/carat)2025 study
Far belowFar above
$432.1M vs. $614.7M peer median
0.29x2025 study
Far aboveFar below
0.29x vs. 0.08x peer median
0.54x2025 study
Far aboveFar below
0.54x vs. 0.08x peer median
$748/carat2025 study
31%
0%100%
31% vs. 19% peer median
22 kmfrom Debswana Diamond Company (De Beers / Government of Botswana JV)'s Letlhakane
Within regional-platform range (~50km)

Acquisition Susceptibility

How this is calculated
6.6/10
Unlikely bolt-onFits the takeout profile

A relative ranking of how closely this company matches the profile of juniors that have actually been acquired — not a probability, and not a reason to buy. Acquisitions are rare: only a few dozen significant deals happen a year across a universe of thousands of juniors, so even a high score here describes a long shot. The strongest signal in the research, a producer that already owns part of the company, is scored from its disclosed strategic shareholders. A producer that is a joint-venture or earn-in partner on the project, rather than a shareholder, isn't captured yet.

How this score is built

  • Disclosed pending deal
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No pending acquisition or merger disclosed (checked)

    Not scored: having no deal in flight isn't held against a company.

    Weight 26.25%
  • Producer's strategic stake
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No producer holds a disclosed stake on file (holder register researched) See holders

    Not scored: most juniors that do get bought had no prior toehold, so a missing stake says little either way.

    Weight 25%
  • Distance to a producing mine
    Sub-score:
    7.8/10

    Nearest producing mine: Letlhakane (Debswana Diamond Company), 22 km

    10 next to a producing mine, 8 at 20 km, 5 at 50 km, 0 beyond 200 km.

    Weight 22.5% · 46% here
  • Lifecycle stage
    Sub-score:
    5.5/10

    Stage: Production

    Feasibility and permitting score 10, where deals cluster, and production 5.5; earlier stages score less, down to 1 at grassroots.

    Weight 15% · 31% here
  • Jurisdiction
    Sub-score:
    8/10

    Botswana: jurisdiction score 8/10

    Our jurisdiction score, used as is: higher means lower political and permitting risk.

    Weight 6.75% · 14% here
  • Commodity
    Sub-score:
    2/10

    Primary commodity: Other

    Gold 10, copper 8, silver 5, nickel and uranium 4, others 2: most majors' deals are for gold.

    Weight 4.5% · 9% here

Weight is each input's share of the full score. “Here” is its share of this company's score: inputs that aren't scored are left out and the rest re-weighted, never counted as zero.

Overall Score Trend
+15.6% since 2026-08-08 · -28.8% from peak

Your Rankings

Community Sentiment
—SELLINGBUYING
CategoryCommunityYour Ranking
Overall— (0) 
Management— (0) 
Financials— (0) 
Jurisdiction— (0) 
Project Quality— (0) 

Management Team

President and CEO of Lucara Diamond Corp.; also Chairman of the Board of Riley Gold Corp.

Chief Financial Officer of Lucara Diamond Corp.

Insiders, Investors & Smart Money

Notable shareholders and insiders whose involvement is worth knowing about, plus what we're seeing from institutional/large-investor activity.

Smart money
4/10

Nemesia S.a.r.l., the Lundin family's private investment vehicle, is Lucara Diamond's largest shareholder at roughly 30.8%, built through a series of cash purchases including a fresh acquisition in January 2026. A Lundin family member personally bought shares on the open market in December.

No notable insiders tracked for this miner yet.

Reports, Presentations & Documents

Technical Report Takeaways

Lucara Diamond operates the Karowe diamond mine in Botswana, its sole asset, known for recovering some of the largest gem-quality diamonds ever found; in Q2 2026 it recovered a 1,303-carat Type IIa diamond, Karowe's tenth stone above 1,000 carats. Open-pit mining is substantially complete and finishes in Q4 2026, and the Karowe Underground Project, with pre-production capital of US$779M, is on track for full-scale production in the first half of 2028, extending mine life to at least 2040 under a mining licence valid to 2046. The 2025 feasibility study for the underground project shows an after-tax NPV8% of US$432.1M. Karowe's indicated resource is 33.13 Mt at 16.2 carats per hundred tonnes for 5,358,000 carats, with a probable reserve of 4,547,000 carats.