JUNIORMETRICS

Capricorn Metals Ltd

CRNLF·CMM·US$9.83 (AUD 14.01)·US$4.5B cap
GoldKarlawinda Gold Project, Western Australia (plus Mt Gibson Gold Project, in final permitting) Map

Capricorn Metals operates the 100%-owned Karlawinda open-pit gold mine in Western Australia (FY26 guidance 115,000-125,000oz, tracking toward the top of range) and is advancing the 100%-owned Mt Gibson Gold Project through final permitting (process plant design ~98% complete). The company reported record half-year results in February 2026 and paid its first-ever dividend (a fully franked 5 cents/share interim payment).

Notable vs. Peers

  • All-in sustaining cost of $1,140/oz is 37% lower than the peer producer average of $1,814/oz.

Lifecycle Milestones

Grassroots
Resource Def.
PEA
PFS
Feasibility
Permitting
Construction
ProductionCurrent

Construction Milestones

5 of 5 reached
  1. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  2. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  3. Reached — date not disclosed · Source
  4. Jun 2021 · Source
  5. Reached — date not disclosed · Source

Milestones are recorded only from a company's own dated disclosure. A milestone with no date shown is one we can confirm was reached but for which no date was disclosed — we don't estimate one. "Not yet reached" means exactly that, not that a date is missing. An "Expected" line likewise only ever reflects the company's own guidance (e.g. a study or permit decision targeted for a stated quarter) — most not-yet-reached milestones have none, and that absence means no such guidance has been disclosed, not that one is overdue.

Prior Ownership & Infrastructure
Karlawinda Gold Project
Existing MillTailings FacilityRoad Access7.1/10 built out

Not in place: grid power.

Combined view across 2 projects. Figures below are only combined where the underlying basis genuinely matches -- see the notes under each.

Combined resource
7.1M oz Au
Sum of 2 of 2 projects with a disclosed figure
IRR, per project
  • 124%Mt Gibson Gold Project
Each project's own figure -- IRR is not additive across independent projects, so these are never combined
Mine life, per project
  • 19.25 yrsMt Gibson Gold Project
Each project's own figure -- independent mine lives are never added or averaged
Combined NPV, by discount-rate basis
$4.4B
At 7.5% discount rate -- Mt Gibson Gold Project
7.9/10
Weak track recordStrong track record
7.9/10 vs.
6.8/10
Thin runwayWell-capitalized
6.8/10 vs.
How this is calculated
5.6/10
Weaker depositStronger deposit
5.6/10 vs.
How this is calculated
7.5/10
Harder place to buildEasier place to build
7.5/10 vs.
What goes into it
  • Jurisdiction (40%)9/10

    Western Australia: Fraser PPI 2025 is 88.53 of 100 (rank 13 of 68), which maps to 9 on this site's scale. All operations in Western Australia -- Tier-1 mining jurisdiction.

  • Infrastructure (40%)7.1/10

    A confirmed mill, confirmed road access, no confirmed grid power, and a confirmed tailings facility at Karlawinda Gold Project.

  • Nearby producing mine (20%)Not yet researched

    No producing mine within 50 km in our reference list (nearest listed: Abra (Endurance Mining Pty Ltd), 184 km). That list doesn't cover every mining district yet, so a longer distance isn't scored as remote.

7/10
Weaker profileStronger profile
7/10 vs.
Price Chart
$6.91$9.95$7.77$8.40$9.94AugDecMarJulOct
Aug 12, 2025 – Oct 20, 2026
News
$9.83
+50.3%from low-22.5%from high
$6.54$12.69
See who ↓
10%
Low alignmentHigh alignment
10% vs.
See who ↓
47.4%
Low alignmentHigh alignment
47.4% vs.
$4.5B
Far belowFar above
$4.5B vs. $541.2M peer median
Price (USD - Local)
US$9.83 (AUD 14.01)
Cash Position (USD)
$308.6M
Far belowFar above
$308.6M vs. $91.1M peer median
Debt (USD)
$17.6M
Far aboveFar below
$17.6M vs. $6.2M peer median
$4.2B
Far belowFar above
$4.2B vs. $457.8M peer median
456.6M
Far aboveFar below
456.6M vs. 316.1M peer median
Jurisdiction
Australia
7,082,000 oz
Feeds Deposit Quality score
Indicated7,082,000 oz
Inferrednot scored1,577,000 oz
Total resource8,659,000 oz
Far belowFar above
7.1M oz vs. 1.3M oz peer median
Compares M&I only — Inferred isn't compared or scored.
$592.69/oz
M&I
Total resource (incl. Inferred)$484.75/oz
Peer median $67.95/oz
Far aboveFar below
$592.69/oz vs. $132.92/oz peer median
0.0233 oz/tCut-off: 0.3-0.4 g/t Au (Karlawinda, open pit, Resource & Reserve); 0.3-0.5 g/t Au (Mt Gibson, open pit, Resource), 1.5 g/t Au (Mt Gibson, underground/Orion South, Resource); 0.4 g/t Au (Mt Gibson, open pit, Reserve; 0.3 g/t Au for Heap Leach Pad material)
Far belowFar above
0.0233 oz/t vs. 0.0383 oz/t peer median
Open pit
See projects ↓
$1,140/oz
See projects ↓
See projects ↓
See projects ↓
See projects ↓
10%
0%100%
10% vs. 12.1% peer median
47.4%
0%100%
47.4% vs. 3.3% peer median
184 kmfrom Endurance Mining Pty Ltd (Taurus Mining Finance Fund No. 2)'s Abra
Outside typical bolt-on range

Acquisition Susceptibility

How this is calculated
4.1/10
Unlikely bolt-onFits the takeout profile

A relative ranking of how closely this company matches the profile of juniors that have actually been acquired — not a probability, and not a reason to buy. Acquisitions are rare: only a few dozen significant deals happen a year across a universe of thousands of juniors, so even a high score here describes a long shot. The strongest signal in the research, a producer that already owns part of the company, is scored from its disclosed strategic shareholders. A producer that is a joint-venture or earn-in partner on the project, rather than a shareholder, isn't captured yet.

How this score is built

  • Disclosed pending deal
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No pending acquisition or merger disclosed (checked)

    Not scored: having no deal in flight isn't held against a company.

    Weight 26.25%
  • Producer's strategic stake
    Sub-score: Not scored

    No producer holds a disclosed stake on file (holder register researched) See holders

    Not scored: most juniors that do get bought had no prior toehold, so a missing stake says little either way.

    Weight 25%
  • Distance to a producing mine
    Sub-score:
    0.5/10

    Nearest producing mine: Abra (Endurance Mining Pty Ltd), 184 km

    10 next to a producing mine, 8 at 20 km, 5 at 50 km, 0 beyond 200 km.

    Weight 22.5% · 46% here
  • Lifecycle stage
    Sub-score:
    5.5/10

    Stage: Production

    Feasibility and permitting score 10, where deals cluster, and production 5.5; earlier stages score less, down to 1 at grassroots.

    Weight 15% · 31% here
  • Jurisdiction
    Sub-score:
    9/10

    Australia: jurisdiction score 9/10

    Our jurisdiction score, used as is: higher means lower political and permitting risk.

    Weight 6.75% · 14% here
  • Commodity
    Sub-score:
    10/10

    Primary commodity: Gold

    Gold 10, copper 8, silver 5, nickel and uranium 4, others 2: most majors' deals are for gold.

    Weight 4.5% · 9% here

Weight is each input's share of the full score. “Here” is its share of this company's score: inputs that aren't scored are left out and the rest re-weighted, never counted as zero.

Overall Score Trend
-11.4% since 2026-08-08 · -19.5% from peak

Your Rankings

Community Sentiment
—SELLINGBUYING
CategoryCommunityYour Ranking
Overall— (0) 
Management— (0) 
Financials— (0) 
Jurisdiction— (0) 
Project Quality— (0) 

Management Team

Overseen the development and commissioning of the Karlawinda Gold Project and the acquisition and progress of the Mt Gibson Gold Project. 35+ years of experience in corporate advisory and public-company management, beginning his career in the 1980s as a corporate lawyer advising on resource project acquisitions, financing and development. CFO/Company Secretary then Managing Director of Equigold NL (1995-Jun 2008, through its A$1.2bn merger with Lihir Gold). Managing Director then Executive Chairman of Regis Resources Limited (May 2009-Oct 2018), overseeing development of the Duketon Gold Project's three operating mines.

Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Capricorn Metals Ltd. Qualified metallurgist with 20+ years of operating and development experience across Australian and Canadian-listed companies, developing projects in Africa, Australia and Canada. Joined Capricorn as COO in May 2024, was appointed CEO in Feb 2025, stepped down from that role in May 2025 to focus on personal priorities, and later returned to the company as Deputy CEO. Before Capricorn, COO of the TSX-listed Roxgold Inc. (2013-2020, through its acquisition by Fortuna Mining) and, before that, senior roles at Perseus Mining developing the Edikan and Sissingue Projects in West Africa.

Insiders, Investors & Smart Money

Notable shareholders and insiders whose involvement is worth knowing about, plus what we're seeing from institutional/large-investor activity.

Smart money
3/10

No producer or strategic investor holds a stake, and the register is dominated by index money -- VanEck's gold ETFs at 7.17%, plus Vanguard, Schwab and SPDR. Paradice Investment Management has crossed above 5% and back out three times in nine months, most recently ceasing in June 2026, which reads as trading rather than conviction. What is current and clean is a director purchase: Jillian Irvin bought 7,750 shares on-market at $12.86 on 6 May 2026, from a starting position of nil. It is a small sum, so read it as direction rather than as a large financial commitment. Management separately owns about 10%.

No notable insiders tracked for this miner yet.

Reports, Presentations & Documents

Technical Report Takeaways

Capricorn Metals operates the 100%-owned Karlawinda open-pit gold mine in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, which poured first gold on 30 June 2021, and is taking the 100%-owned Mt Gibson Gold Project in the Murchison region through final permitting. Its group resource effective 31 March 2026 is 7,082,000 oz of indicated gold (Karlawinda 2,382,000 oz, Mt Gibson 4,700,000 oz), with no measured category, plus 1,577,000 oz inferred; in July 2026 the group ore reserve rose 33% to 5.24 Moz, including Mt Gibson's first underground reserve. Mt Gibson's updated pre-feasibility study (27 July 2026) shows a pre-tax NPV7.5% of US$4.40B (AUD 6.1B) and a 124% IRR at an A$5,500/oz gold price assumption, with a 19.25-year mine life and steady-state output of about 260,000 oz a year. Karlawinda's all-in sustaining cost for FY2026 (the year to 30 June 2026) was US$1,140/oz (AUD 1,629/oz).